Models


Computer Modelling

Computer models developed by the project’s Dutch partner, Alterra, will provide the basis for the analysis of visitor pressure on the environment in the New Forest and Fontainebleau. These models are being used to help shape the decision-making process for future recreation at the two forests and lend the process structure and credibility.

Alterra has been developing these computer models over the last ten years. They are an invaluable management tool to help analyse the effects of visitor pressure on the ecology and wildlife and identify areas where visitor impacts are greatest.

Detailed vegetation and ecology data, along with specific information on bird species found at each location, has been programmed into the ecology model, LARCH, and all the information derived from the large visitor surveys and data gathered through the GPS units has been added to the recreation model, MASOOR.

User profiles are created from these data and consist of a set of parameters, all of which are put into the model. Examples of parameters are the length of a visit, the preferred activity, the preferred path type(s), preferred landscape(s), knowledge of the area, etc. MASOOR can then predict visitor flows in a certain area based on such preferences, as well as the availability of paths and tracks, and landscape data.

Firstly, MASOOR shows how the forest is being used by visitors, and then the results of the modelling are checked with the GPS data. The project team will be able to see the number of people visiting each site, where they go and the types of activities they get up to.

Next, the ecological information in LARCH and the recreation data in MASOOR will be run together and will show the impact of recreation in certain areas and the ways different groups interact together. Finally, the third model, METAPHOR, can be used to demonstrate what the effect will be of alterations to the infrastructure of the forest. METAPHOR can ‘trial’ certain scenarios, for example, moving a car park or building new tracks, to understand what the consequences of such actions could be and the likely improvements to the area before actually implementing it on the ground.

Using this information, the teams in the New Forest and Fontainebleau can consult with their stakeholder groups and consider appropriate pilot actions to help alleviate or divert certain impacts. From here, it is hoped to use the models to help develop appropriate and effective recreation plans for both the New Forest and Fontainebleau.

Click on the links below to read more about the modelling techniques. More detailed information can be found on the ALTERRA section of the website.

 

MASOOR Leaflet


LARCH info